Long, complex texts

The paradox of choice, reconsidered. For much of the early twenty-first century, a single idea shaped how businesses and policymakers thought about consumers: that too much choice is paralysing. The argument, popularised in books and talks, drew on a now-famous study in which shoppers presented with 24 varieties of jam were far less likely to buy any than those offered only six.

The finding was intuitive, memorable and, crucially, useful — it justified simplifying product ranges, pension options and even public services. Yet attempts to replicate the effect have produced strikingly inconsistent results. A large analysis combining dozens of experiments concluded that, on average, the effect of the number of options on satisfaction or purchasing was close to zero.

This does not mean the original researchers were wrong. Rather, the effect appears to depend heavily on circumstances: choice overload is more likely when options are hard to compare, when people lack clear preferences, or when the decision feels important and irreversible. When those conditions are absent, larger ranges can actually attract customers.

The lesson, perhaps, is less about jam than about how ideas travel. A single, elegant study became a general law, repeated long after the evidence had grown more complicated. The question for decision-makers is therefore not ‘How many options?’ but ‘Under what conditions do options help or harm?’